Premier League prediction: Another zero win for Arsenal? | Football News

Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insights and analysis on the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season.

Watch Premier League highlights for free on the Sky Sports app
Watch Premier League highlights for free on the Sky Sports app

Manchester United v Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Manchester United vs Arsenal

Arsenal’s zero away wins is becoming a real comfort bet. It’s simple, yet yields huge rewards. Since the start of last season, the Gunners have a 57% away win rate in the Premier League. My math suggests that Arsenal would win zero with even betting, but we’re at 15/8 at Sky Bet so that has to be taken into account.

This outstanding defense has now conceded just 2 goals in its last 7 away Premier League games and has conceded an average of just 0.67 expected goals per 90 players in its last 16 Premier League games. This is an amazing number.

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Ahead of Manchester United’s clash with Arsenal, we take a look back at Sylvain Wiltord’s goal that sealed the Premier League title for the Gunners at Old Trafford.

I think the only way United can get something out of this game is if it becomes too easy for Arsenal.

Erik ten Hag’s side are very good at this, performing so poorly in a game that they lull their opponents into a false sense of security – as happened against Liverpool of – and then within 10 minutes, Manchester United’s big-match player started – for which neither the party nor the opposition were mentally prepared.

Mikel Arteta is too focused on control to let his pragmatic side take his eyes off the trophies. Arteta will go there and his priority will be to keep a clean sheet – if Arsenal do that, they will win the game. Sky Bet’s Under 3.5 goal line is 4/5, the best play at this price.

Score prediction: 0-2

Aston Villa v Liverpool, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

Liverpool look like a good option here.

Villa will go into Thursday’s trip to Greece depleted with a hugely disappointing performance and Unai Emery has really struggled to contain Jurgen Klopp’s side in the past. Emery is winless in nine games against Klopp since beating Liverpool in the 2016 Europa League final against Sevilla, conceding three or more goals in six of those games, including Liverpool’s 3 this season. -0 win in reverse match, and this match was at Villa Park last season, Liverpool won 3-1.

Villa have spent 153 nights in the Premier League’s top four this season, so on that basis they probably deserve Champions League qualification, but they are struggling to get across the finish line. They are becoming a very easy scoring team.

Over the past 15 Premier League games, their average expected goals per 90 is 1.91, which ranks them fourth in the Premier League, even worse than Sheffield United. Things get even worse when assessing their big chances conceded figures – only Luton have provided more Opta-defined ‘big chances’ in their last 15 games – 42 in 15 games, an average of 2.8 pcs.

Liverpool are the kings of creating these great chances – no team has created more than their 95 this season.

Back Liverpool to win via Sky Bet and look to be the winner in waiting with over 2.5 goals scored on 11/10.

Score prediction: 1-3

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