Who Will Be Relegated from the Premier League in 2023-24?

Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2023-24? Using the Opta supercomputer’s predictions, we’re able to look at the chances of relegation for each team facing the drop from the top flight. As the season goes on, we’ll track the progress of those sides in their battle to avoid relegation to the Championship.

22 April

It was a polarising weekend for the teams struggling towards the bottom of the Premier League, as the relegation battle produced a few more twists and turns that saw several clubs take huge strides towards safety.

Although Crystal Palace and Brentford have mostly only been on the periphery of the scrap at the bottom, both look as though they can rest a little easier over the coming weeks after victories at the weekend took them 11 and 10 points clear of the bottom three respectively.

Palace thrashed West Ham 5-2 on Sunday, though Brentford’s success on Saturday had a more significant impact on matters in the fight for survival, as they crushed 18th-placed Luton Town 5-1 at Kenilworth Road.

Premier League relegation battle 22 April
Jonathan Manuel / Data Analyst

It was a fourth defeat in five for Luton and a second 5-1 loss on the bounce, contributing to their relegation chances increasing from 59.4% last week to 72.4%.

Fortunately for Luton, Nottingham Forest couldn’t get a result at Everton on Sunday. The Toffees’ 2-0 win moved them five points clear of the drop zone and they also have a game in hand on the three clubs below them.

Forest are one of those three clubs, of course. They remain a point better off than Luton (26 to 25) with four matches remaining, with their relegation probability rated at 33.5% by the Opta supercomputer; that’s up slightly from 33.1% last week, while Everton’s dropped to 1.0 – as low as it’s been all season – from 8.9%.

Sean Dyche’s men have probably done enough now to retain their top-flight status.

Premier League relegation battle chance changes

Burnley are still fighting. They also enjoyed an impressive victory on Saturday, leaving Bramall Lane with a 4-1 defeat of Sheffield United. They remain three points adrift of safety but face relegation rivals Forest on the last day of the season in a game that could potentially decide who goes down.

Still, the supercomputer’s output reflects how unlikely it would be for the Clarets to escape as they drop to the Championship in 93.2% of the 10,000 season simulations – that’s down from 98.4% before the weekend, though. A shock win at Old Trafford against an ailing Manchester United on Saturday could really put a cat among the pigeons.

Sheffield United are as good as gone. Ten points from safety with five matches left, nothing about their performance this season has suggested they’re capable of turning things around so late in the day; they could even set a new record for most goals conceded in a Premier League campaign.

16 April

There was very little to smile about for the Premier League’s bottom five this weekend, as Everton, Nottingham Forest, Luton, Burnley, and Sheffield United all dropped points. As a result, those teams have been cut further adrift in the battle to beat the drop.

The fact that they all slipped up has, however, meant there was little change in the Opta supercomputer’s predictions for their fate come the end of the season.

Sheffield United’s chances of relegation went up from 99.6% to an almost-certain 99.8%. Burnley, who could have grabbed a vital win were it not for Arijanet Muric’s colossal error to let Sander Berge’s backpass slip under his foot and into the net, also saw their relegation chances edge towards 100%, going from 98.1% to 98.5%.

The likely fate of those two teams leaves one spot in the relegation zone to avoid for the rest, and Luton remain favourites to fill it. A 5-1 defeat at Manchester City is nothing to feel embarrassed about, and the supercomputer fully expected Rob Edwards’ side to come away empty-handed. That’s why their relegation chances have only gone up slightly – from 59.1% to 61.0%. Time is running out for Luton to claw their way out of trouble, though.

Premier League Title Race Line Graph

Nottingham Forest moved a point clear of the Hatters but they may consider their draw against Wolves to be two points dropped rather than one point gained. Whatever it was, it was a huge opportunity to pick up a crucial win that they didn’t take.

Forest’s relegation chances improved a little with that point – dropping from 33.1% to 32.7% – and they will need to match Luton’s results for the rest of the season to retain their Premier League status. They still have to play Everton, Burnley and Sheffield United, so there are plenty of opportunities to pick up the points they need.

Everton had about as disastrous a week as possible, losing 6-0 at Chelsea to deal their goal difference a hefty blow. It was the first time in 308 top-flight games that a Sean Dyche team has conceded as many as six goals.

The defeat pushed their relegation chances up from 5.6% to 7.6%, making them the biggest losers from the weekend. With only one win in their last 15, they are rather stumbling towards Premier League safety. Of course, they are appealing their latest points deduction, and the outcome of that process may be key to whether or not they stay up.

Wins for Brentford (2-0 vs Sheffield United) and Crystal Palace (1-0 vs Liverpool), meanwhile, have moved those two teams towards safety. Given respective relegation chances of 0.3% and 0.1% after the weekend, it would take something remarkable for either side to go down.

PL relegation predictor 16 April

8 April

It’s been an eventful few days at the wrong end of the Premier League. After a weekend that saw just two of the bottom six lose, Everton were on Monday given another points deduction for further breaches of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules.

This time it was only a two-point deduction (following on from their 10-point penalty that was reduced to six on appeal), but it is still damaging nonetheless. It has naturally dragged them further back into the relegation battle.

They had gone into the weekend with a 3.5% chance of going down according to the Opta supercomputer. A 1-0 win against a Burnley side seemingly desperate to shoot themselves in the foot saw Everton’s chances of relegation drop to 2.2%, only for the two-point deduction to increase their relegation chances to 5.6%.

They are therefore deemed more likely to go down than they were before the weekend’s action despite having one more point than they did on Friday. That’s because of results around them – namely Luton’s comeback victory over Bournemouth.

Rob Edwards’ side went into the weekend without a win in 10, and there wouldn’t have been much confidence that they could end that run when they were trailing to Bournemouth with less than 20 minutes to go at Kenilworth Road on Saturday.

But Luton have ended games very well this season – only Liverpool (27) have scored more goals after the 76th minute in Premier League games than them (17) – and they turned the game around to secure a vital three points. The result leaves them trailing 17th-placed Nottingham Forest only on goal difference.

Having gone into the weekend with a 79.2% chance of going down (5 April), the Matchday 32 results saw their chances of relegation fall to 60.9% (7 April). Everton’s point deduction gave them another nudge in the right direction, with Luton relegated in 59.1% of the supercomputer’s latest round of simulations (8 April).

premier league relegation chances opta supercomputer after MD32

Luton were the only team in the bottom seven that saw their chances of survival improve this weekend, with their relegation chances dropping by 20.1% since Friday.

Nottingham Forest were the biggest losers this weekend, with their 3-1 defeat at Tottenham increasing their chances of going down from 19.2% to 34.4%. Everton’s points deduction did help them out with a drop of 1.3% in their chances of going down, but an overall reduction of 13.9% in the survival hopes puts them firmly in the relegation battle.

Burnley had gone four games without a defeat before this weekend, but they needed to keep up their run of form, particularly given they were facing a rival at the bottom of the table in Everton. But Arijanet Muric gifted Dominic Calvert-Lewin a goal before Dara O’Shea was sent off, and they couldn’t find a way back into the game. The weekend’s events leave them with just a 1.9% chance of survival.

Brentford (1.7%) and Crystal Palace (2.8%) are still just about in the relegation battle given their recent form. They are both within five points of the relegation zone and looking over their shoulders nervously.

2 April

It’s a potentially massive week in the Premier League, with a midweek matchday to be followed by another round of fixtures at the weekend. While such a congested schedule could be impactful anywhere in the table, it’s at the bottom where the clamour for points is arguably at its most desperate.

The weekend’s action brought the bottom five a little closer together for the second matchday in a row, as both of the bottom two picked up at least a point again, while Everton – sat fifth from bottom – suffered a third successive defeat.

It’s also worth noting that this was the first matchday since Nottingham Forest were hit with a four-point deduction for breaches of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR).

Sheffield United still prop up the table but will be feeling a bitter sense of what might’ve been after they surrendered a 3-1 lead in what was eventually a 3-3 draw at home to Fulham on Saturday, with Marco Silva’s side scoring twice from the 86th minute onwards.

So, while their chances of avoiding the drop have remained at 98.4% according to the Opta supercomputer, it’s fair to say their outlook would’ve looked a little less bleak had they held on against Fulham; after all, no one is expecting them to get anything from Thursday’s trip to Anfield.

The Blades weren’t the only team in the struggling pack to suffer late disappointment on Saturday. Luton Town were on course for a commendable 1-1 draw at Tottenham, but Son Heung-min’s 86th-minute winner for the hosts was a bitter blow and saw the Hatters drop into the bottom three.

Last week, Luton’s relegation probability was rated at 62.1%; that’s now up to 65.5% as a result of the weekend’s results.

Forest were the main team to gain from Luton’s late disappointment. Their points deduction really increased the heat on Nuno Espírito Santo’s side but a 1-1 draw at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday was enough to move them back above Luton on goal difference.

Nevertheless, it wasn’t enough to reduce their relegation chances in the eyes of the supercomputer, as they went from 37.5% to 39.3%. However, they’ll sense the midweek fixtures present an opportunity to break clear as they host Fulham on Tuesday while Luton go to title-challenging Arsenal a day later.

Burnley are still rated as the next most likely to go down after Sheffield United, though their fans may still be harbouring real hope of a great escape. Few would’ve expected them to get a result at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, yet they left with a 2-2 draw despite playing more than half the match a man down.

That contributed to their relegation probability decreasing by 3.8 percentage points to 91.0%, and with an inconsistent Wolves side visiting Turf Moor on Tuesday, another positive result is hardly beyond the realm of possibility.

Premier League relegation chances

Of the bottom five, Everton are still the least likely to go down according to the supercomputer, which stands to reason. Before the weekend, their chances of dropping a division were rated at 3.3%; a run of three defeats on the bounce has contributed to a slight – but marginal – increase to 3.6%, though the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations still considers it to be very unlikely Sean Dyche’s team will be sucked into the relegation zone.

Some might even argue the likes of Brentford – a place above Everton – and Crystal Palace – another place higher – aren’t out of the woods yet, though, and when you look at the latter’s run-in, it’s easy to see why.

Premier League fixture difficulty Opta Analyst
Jonathan Manuel / Data Analyst

Of the bottom seven teams, Palace statistically have the toughest final nine games when you take into consideration the average rating of their opponents in the Opta Power Rankings.

The teams they have between now and the end of the season have an average rating of 90.2, with matches against Manchester City (H) and Liverpool (A) back-to-back. In fact, of their remaining nine matches, seven are against sides currently in the top half of the table and none are clashes with sides below them.

It also doesn’t look great for Luton, who will be facing teams with an average rating of 88.8 in the Opta Power Rankings. They still have to go to Arsenal and City, though they host fellow strugglers Everton on MD 36, and that could be vital.

18 March

Due to the FA Cup quarter-finals, only four Premier League games took place over the weekend, but there was still drama aplenty, particularly in the race to avoid relegation to the Championship.

The bottom six teams are all firmly in the mix, while Crystal Palace may be looking over their shoulders in 14th. Four of them were in action at the weekend, all in games against one another.

Burnley picked up just their fourth Premier League win of the season, beating 10-man Brentford 2-1 at Turf Moor to give their hopes of survival a much-needed boost. Their chances of relegation were rated at 99.4% before the weekend, and things are still looking rather hopeless for Vincent Kompany’s side. Nothing but three points would have done on Saturday, though.

They will need more wins if they are to escape the drop, but after seeing off Brentford they are relegated in 97.5% of the supercomputer’s season simulations. It’s not much of an improvement, but it’s a move in the right direction at least.

Premier League relegation chances

Brentford aren’t in trouble yet, but this was still a damaging defeat. Thomas Frank’s side are now only four points clear of the relegation zone having lost five and drawn one of their last six games. Their chances of going down increased from 2.8% before the loss at Burnley, to 4.6%. They do at least have a relatively easy run-in on their side, although they would have expected to get something from the game at Turf Moor this weekend, so current form suggests they can’t count on taking points against any opponent. They’ll need to keep all 11 men on the pitch to stand any chance, with Sergio Reguilón’s early red card costing them on Saturday.

The other game involving teams at the bottom saw Luton rescue a point late on against Nottingham Forest. They came into this game having themselves thrown away a lead in the middle of last week, losing 4-3 at Bournemouth after leading 3-0 at the break. In doing so, Luton became only the third team in Premier League history to lose a game after holding a half-time lead of at least three goals.

That result – in their game in hand – put even more pressure on this weekend’s home match against fellow relegation battlers Forest. Nuno Espiríto Santo’s side had also been on a poor run heading into this one.

It was the visitors who took the lead, though, with Chris Wood turning in Morgan Gibbs-White’s cross in the first half. Had the score stayed at 1-0, Forest would have opened up a five-point gap to the relegation zone.

Instead, they dropped back, invited pressure, and were made to pay in the 89th minute when Luke Berry turned in his first Premier League goal to rescue a vital point for the hosts.

More dropped points (on top of the defeat to Bournemouth) meant Luton’s relegation chances increased from 69.4% to 78.1% in the last week. Forest’s chances were given a little boost, dropping to 13.4%, having been 17.3% last week.

Without even kicking a ball, Everton’s chances of going down fell from 7.1% to 5.1%. Their game in hand – a Merseyside derby against rivals Liverpool at Goodison Park – may well prove crucial.

The promoted three sides all look doomed, but there’s plenty of time yet for more twists and turns in the 2023-24 relegation battle.

11 March

Matchday 28 was an unbeaten weekend for our newly promoted sides, with each of Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton earning a point. It’s the first time that’s happened since the weekend before Christmas, and those draws have ended a run of 11 consecutive defeats for the three sides combined.

Draws aren’t enough for Sheffield United (99.6%) and Burnley (99.4%) though, who are still staring down the barrel of immediate relegation back down to the Championship.

Cauley Woodrow’s late equaliser for Luton against Crystal Palace could yet prove significant, with that point seeing Rob Edwards’ side’s chances of relegation drop by 5.2%, down to 69.4% overall.

Premier League relegation chances - Opta MD28

Elsewhere in the bottom five, Nottingham Forest lost their fourth consecutive game in all competitions away at Brighton. It’s now just one win in eight Premier League matches for Nuno Espírito Santo’s men, who are just three points above Luton, and the Hatters have a game in hand. Forest’s chances of relegation increased 2.3% up to 17.3% as a result of their defeat on the south coast.

Premier League relegation chances - Opta MD 28

In the weekend’s early kick-off, Everton once again put in a solid performance but had nothing to show for it, losing 2-0 against Manchester United at Old Trafford. Sean Dyche’s side had 23 shots to United’s 15, but were unable to convert any of them. That’s been the story of their season so far, with the Toffee’s shot conversion rate currently sitting at just 7.3% in the Premier League this season, scoring 29 goals from 397 shots. It’s the club’s lowest rate in a campaign on record in the competition (since 1997-98).

Their inability to turn chances into goals is at the heart of their 11-game winless run in the top flight, the longest ongoing run of any side currently in the competition. Away from home, the Toffees have lost four of their last six league games (D2), more than their previous 15 on the road beforehand (W6 D6 L3). While they are currently fifth favourites for relegation, their chances are slowly creeping up, and now sit at 7.1%.

Crystal Palace (4.2%) and Brentford (2.8%) may also be looking over their shoulders nervously.

5 March

It really is tough going at the bottom of the Premier League right now. All five of the teams in the bottom five lost, while Brentford (15th) drew and Crystal Palace (14th) were also beaten.

Sheffield United (99.7%) and Burnley (99.4%) are getting ever closer to the doomed 100% figure. And neither are showing much sign of life.

Arsenal’s 6-0 demolition of the Blades saw Sheffield United become the first side in English football to concede 5+ goals in four successive home games in all competitions and the first side in English league football to lose three consecutive home league games by at least a five-goal margin.

Chris Wilder’s side have now been beaten by at least five goals in four home games this season, which is another unwanted record in the top-flight.

While Sheffield United were never expected to get anything out of their game against title-contending Arsenal, it was a different story for Burnley at home to Bournemouth, who were given a 35.0% chance of winning by the Opta supercomputer.

In some aspects, Vincent Kompany’s side dominated the game. Their 75% possession was their most in a Premier League game to date, while their 20 shots was their joint-most in a match in the competition without scoring (also 20 vs West Brom in August 2017).

Yet they couldn’t convert their territory into anything concrete, and were caught on the counter for both of Bournemouth’s goals.

Premier League relegation prediction - Opta

Luton (74.6%) had come back from 2-0 down against Aston Villa to level their game at 2-2, before an 89th-minute Lucas Digne winner broke home fans’ hearts. Tahith Chong and Carlton Morris had cancelled out Ollie Watkins’ first-half double, but Villa substitute Digne stole round the back post to head in the winner late on.

Rob Edwards’ side were the biggest losers of this matchday, seeing their chances of relegation jump up by 5.3%. They have now lost each of their last three Premier League home games, while it is the first time that the Hatters have suffered three consecutive league defeats at Kenilworth Road since April 2016 as a League Two side.

Before and after MD27 - PL relegation odds Opta supercomputer

Nottingham Forest can feel rightly aggrieved by their defeat against Liverpool on Saturday. Deep into stoppage time, referee Paul Tierney bizarrely awarded a drop ball to Liverpool, despite Forest last being in possession of the ball when play was stopped. The Reds subsequently went down the other end and scored, condemning Forest to their third successive defeat in all competitions. They did see their relegation chances reduce by 1.7% though thanks to others’ misfortunes.

Despite also losing, Everton were not hugely affected on MD 27, with their relegation probability only rising by 0.1% to 4.5% thanks to everyone else losing around them.

Sean Dyche’s side endured yet more struggles in front of goal, taking a total of 21 shots against West Ham. It’s the fifth time this season they’ve had 20+ shots in a Premier League home game, but they’ve ended on the losing side in three of them (23 vs Luton, 24 vs Manchester United).

With results going their way around them and recently seeing their 10-point deduction reduced to six on appeal, it looks increasingly likely that Everton will not be punished for their profligacy. Nervous Blues fans glancing at the Premier League table will be hoping they course-correct rather sharpish, though. 

How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?

• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.

• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.

• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.

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